William Lehr (Massachusetts Institute Technology (MIT) Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL)) and Volker Stocker (Technische U Berlin (TU Berlin)) have posted “The Growing Complexity of Digital Economies over the GenAI Waterfall: Challenges and Policy Implications” on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
The GenAI genie is out of the bottle. AI, and its vanguard GenAI, is a change agent that profoundly impacts the global transition to a digital economy. GenAI is already percolating through businesses and tasks, transforming how we create, innovate, and consume content (information), products, and services. Being deployed more widely across all layers and components of value chains, it brings new affordances that have transformed (or are slated to transform) nearly all conceivable social and economic contexts. Changes will affect online and offline worlds directly and indirectly. Users of AI models, tools, and services have been interacting with GenAI for some time already, but the indirect effects of GenAI are inherently less obvious and harder to assess, especially at this early stage. End users are often unaware of how the products and services they use are produced, and even for domain experts, the challenge of assessing the social and economic impact of ICTs has always proved difficult. Those challenges will only become more challenging with GenAI because its ability to operate in the background (a direct result of automation) means that many of those affected by GenAI will be unaware that—or how—GenAI is already impacting them.
In this article, we examine emerging policy challenges in two interrelated areas: the growing complexity of technical and business relationships in AI-driven digital ecosystems and changing concerns about asymmetric information and transparency. While GenAI should be viewed as part of a broader trajectory of ICT-based automation, our aim is to highlight how and why GenAI-related policy challenges differ. Although we cannot predict with any precision the post-waterfall future, it is clear that GenAI will be part of the landscape and will be a tool policymakers will need to use to address the future challenges. That makes two requirements for future policymaking clear. We need a much better and more capable multi-stakeholder measurement ecosystem, and we need to strengthen policymakers’ human multidisciplinary institutional capacity.
